Morgan Stanley has doubled its forecast for China's humanoid robot shipments, now projecting 50,000 units will ship in 2026 — up from a previous estimate of 25,000 units, according to a report published on June 24. The sharp revision reflects what the investment bank calls an accelerating transition from demonstration projects into early commercial deployment.
The upgrade follows a prior forecast increase in January 2026, when Morgan Stanley raised its 2026 estimate to 28,000 units as component prices fell 16% and Chinese manufacturers like Xpeng and Unitree began scaling production lines. The latest revision is nearly double that January figure, driven by real-world adoption in factories, warehouses, and logistics centers rather than pilot programs alone.
Morgan Stanley analysts cited a flurry of new purchase agreements and pilot expansions across manufacturing and service sectors as the catalyst for the higher forecast. The bank noted that China now hosts over 150 companies developing humanoid robots, with several having moved past the prototype stage into limited commercial sales. Key players including Xpeng and Unitree have accelerated mass production timelines, according to the South China Morning Post.
The bank expects component costs to continue declining as supply chains mature, further lowering the barrier to adoption. Morgan Stanley projects that by 2030, China's humanoid robot market could exceed 500,000 annual shipments as the technology reaches price parity with industrial automation alternatives.
